Winter Quarter 2020 Market Review
Santa Clara County
In Santa Clara County, single-family home median prices of $1.4 million tied last quarter’s all-time median high, confirming that this remains a very strong market, and 2020 prices were above comparable prices in 2019 throughout the year. Dr. Eisenberg says, “Home prices in Santa Clara County continue to appreciate at levels just slightly above the national trend.”
Single-family home sales have recovered nicely from a weak Q1 and a disastrous Q2, and in an interesting twist, Q4 was the strongest quarter of the year in terms of sales. Dr. Eisenberg notes that you saw nearly one third of your total 2020 sales in Q4 when normally that would be your slowest quarter of the year. It appears that, for now at least, seasonality disappeared due to covid. For all of 2020, sales are just barely over 2019 levels, but the number of pending sales at year-end is double what was in the queue at the end of 2019.
While the available units for sale are up 21.5% compared to last December, months of inventory is at a near record low of 0.7. Overall, Santa Clara County is a super strong market being driven by very strong demand.
In the common interest market in Santa Clara County, the median sales price of $835,000 is up 6.4% year-over-year but is well off the highs seen in mid-2018 through mid-2019. Q4 sales were at the highest level since Q2 of 2018 and pending sales are well above last December levels, preparing for a good first quarter of 2021. New listings are well above normal for this time of year, bumping inventory above the same point last year, but inventories are still very tight, especially given the number of sales.
San Mateo County
With a median sale price of $1,680,840, San Mateo County saw a record fourth quarter price and the third highest overall quarterly median price. Prices gained 8.7% or $133,840 over last year. Dr. Eisenberg notes, “Price data show no evidence of any sort of an exodus from San Mateo County.”
Closed sales are up 30.6% over last year, the largest year-over-year gain since Q3 of 2003, and are at an almost 20-year high. For the year-to-date, sales are up 1.6% over 2019, a bit amazing when you consider the covid-related shutdowns of the spring of 2020. Dollar sales volume has skyrocketed over the last two quarters, and for the year, gained 11.5% over last year. Dr. Eisenberg notes that “I think we see signs that in 2020 at least, seasonality has gone out of the window. With work-from-home, online schooling and smaller or non-existent holiday gatherings, the traditional Q4 slowdown in the real estate market mostly disappeared. It may partially reassert itself in 2021, but I think that to some extent, this is part of our new normal.”
Q4 new listings were up substantially, but with an even higher level of sales, inventories continue to tighten. Although the actual number of available listings is higher than it normally is in December, there is still just 0.8 month’s supply of inventory available.
We saw plenty of activity in the common interest market in San Mateo County, with sales and new listings up considerably. The market is tight, but not as much as the single-family market.
Santa Cruz County
Median sale prices rose to an all-time high price of $1,055,000 in Q4 in Santa Cruz County. Dr. Eisenberg comments “We’ve seen two consecutive quarters of double-digit price appreciation in Santa Cruz County, coupled with big gains in sales. I speculate that perhaps this is being driven by some families moving within the Silicon Valley to slightly more affordable areas as part of the work-from-home phenomenon. If your employer is now allowing more remote work and you are no longer facing a daily commute but still want to stay close enough for periodic trips to the office, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties give you proximity without the price.”
Closed sales rose 7.8% in 2020 compared to 2019 and sales volume of single-family homes gained 18.9% over 2019. Inventory levels declined in Q4 (in contrast to Santa Cruz and San Mateo Counties, where they rose) and percent of list price received at sale tapped 102%, the highest level in recent memory, while days-on-market were half what they were a year ago.
In the Santa Cruz area, prices for multi-family homes of $649,000 were at a record high for Q4 and were up 9.8% from last year, but they were down from the all-time high set last quarter. Closed sales were up 30.2%, but pending sales compared to last year were down 11.1%. For all of 2020, closed sales were up 8.3% and dollar volume was up 18.0% compared to last year. The common interest market in Santa Cruz remains a strong market, but not quite as strong as the single-family market.
Monterey County
Monterey County saw incredible price appreciation, to all-time highs, with median sales prices rising 27.8% to $829,995 and the average price rising 31.4% to $1,346,111. Dr. Eisenberg says, “We may be seeing the work-from-home effect at play here in Monterey County. With a median sales price of $830,000 in Monterey County, compared to $1.68 million in San Mateo County and $1.4 million in Santa Cruz County, Monterey County provides an affordable option for someone who is not commuting into the office as frequently as before. The challenge will be limited inventory, especially with both closed and pending sales up significantly over 2019 for the last half of 2020.”
For all of 2020, closed sales were up 2.6% while total sales volume was up a staggering 32.3% over 2019, by far the largest year-over-year percentage gain in the Valley.
The common interest market in Monterey County is very solid but is certainly not seeing the frothiness of the single-family market. Prices slipped from the all-time high of $575,000 seen in 20Q3 to $539,000, still the second highest level in recent memory. Q4 sales were up a solid 20.2%, but for the year were down 2.2% compared to last year, and 2020 sales volume compared to 2019 was nearly flat. The data here is good, but just not as strong as the single-family market.
San Benito County
In San Benito County, median sales prices rose to their highest all-time level of $675,000, while closed sales rose by double-digits for the second quarter in a row. Dr. Eisenberg comments, “You should see price appreciation like this in the summer, not around the holidays! Clearly, we are seeing a tempering of seasonality and I don’t see this changing until perhaps next fall as vaccination rates rise and we go back to a normal school schedule.”
For the year, closed sales are up 4.3% and sales volume was up 11.5% compared to 2019. Dr. Eisenberg notes this may be reflective of some intra-Valley movement if buyers are moving from the more expensive areas to more affordable San Benito County.
In the common interest market in San Benito, there is a limited amount of sales data to analyze, but clearly the 17.1% year-over-year increase in closed sales and 23.8% gain in sales volume are signs of a good, solid market.
Chinh Nguyen-Duc, MLS Listings, Inc